Autonomous Vehicle Consultant

According to an American Petroleum Institute (API) TV commercial, “The U.S. has enough untapped oil and natural gas resources to power more than 60 million cars and heat 160 million households for 60 years. But unlike many countries, our Congress puts much of it off-limits. A majority of Americans say that should change. Today’s technology allows us to tap these resources and protect the environment. So let’s put America’s oil and natural gas to work for Americans.”

This API commercial is disingenuous at best and does not disclose the fact that the lower 48-states, the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska have declining oil productions (i.e., past Peak Oil production). Where are the untapped U.S. oil resources?

Also, “swept under the rug” by the API commercial is the reality that the U.S. imports 60 percent of its crude oil needs (2010 data from the Energy Information Administration).

The API commercial claims that there is enough natural gas to power 60 million cars, but offers no proof of that statement. Where is the API plan to scale up the conversion of 60M cars to  operate with natural gas?

It might interest the API to know that there are more than 250M registered vehicles in the United States. What will power the other 190M vehicles with fuel other than gasoline or diesel?

The graph below displays a close correlation between growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and oil demand growth from 1971 until 2007. There is every reason to believe that the correlation established during this 36-year period will continue into the future.

There is a high degree of correlation between increase in number of workers and growth in oil consumption as indicated in the graph below from 1981 until 2010. The degree of correlation is evidenced by the high value of the coefficient of determination at 0.93.

The high degree of correlation between oil, the GDP, as well as oil and expanding worker population makes sense. For example, 72 percent of oil is consumed by transportation needs, while 25 percent serves as feedstock for products (e.g., fertilizers, plastics and roadway pavement materials).

Based on 2010 data from the Energy Information Administration (EIS), the United States produced 2 billion barrels of crude oil and imported 3 billion barrels. That means imported oil accounted for 60 percent of the oil consumed. In the future more imported crude oil will be required because U.S. crude oil reserves are all declining. This includes the lower 48-states, the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska.

Until the United States can uncouple its GDP and worker population from imported crude oil, the economy of this country will be reliant on crude oil exports from many nations, some of whom wish us ill.

Note: There are 11 government agencies that support the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) programs. Solicitations from these agencies are published several times during the year and contain dozens of problem topics. For example, many topics from the Department of Defense (DOD) and the Department of Energy (DOE) have a keen interest in energy efficiency and renewable energy, some of which may overlap the issues raised in this post. Small businesses, sometimes teamed with universities, may submit proposals in response to these topics and possibly receive awards for technology/process development.

President Obama has repeatedly stressed the need for energy independence, and, in particular, a reduction in imported oil. How is that possible given the constantly declining oil production curve illustrated below for the US Gulf of Mexico?

Peak production was reached in 2002.

The United States has a total of 254,212,610 registered highway vehicles in 2009. How can that many vehicles be powered from domestic crude based on this declining production curve?

Note: There are 11 government agencies that support the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) programs. Solicitations from these agencies are published several times during the year and contain dozens of problem topics. For example, many topics from the Department of Defense (DOD) and the Department of Energy (DOE) have a keen interest in energy efficiency and renewable energy, some of which may overlap the issues raised in this post. Small businesses, sometimes teamed with universities, may submit proposals in response to these topics and possibly receive awards for technology/process development.

President Obama has repeatedly stressed the need for energy independence, and, in particular, a reduction in imported oil. How is that possible given the constantly declining oil production curve illustrated below for Alaska?

Peak production was reached in 1988.

The United States has a total of 254,212,610 registered highway vehicles in 2009. How can that many vehicles be powered from domestic crude based on this declining production curve?

Note: There are 11 government agencies that support the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) programs. Solicitations from these agencies are published several times during the year and contain dozens of problem topics. For example, many topics from the Department of Defense (DOD) and the Department of Energy (DOE) have a keen interest in energy efficiency and renewable energy, some of which may overlap the issues raised in this post. Small businesses, sometimes teamed with universities, may submit proposals in response to these topics and possibly receive awards for technology/process development.

President Obama has repeatedly stressed the need for energy independence, and, in particular, a reduction in imported oil. How is that possible given the constantly declining oil production curve illustrated below for the lower 48 states?

Peak production was reached in 1970.

The United States has a total of 254,212,610 registered highway vehicles in 2009. How can that many vehicles be powered from domestic crude based on this declining production curve?

Note: There are 11 government agencies that support the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) programs. Solicitations from these agencies are published several times during the year and contain dozens of problem topics. For example, many topics from the Department of Defense (DOD) and the Department of Energy (DOE) have a keen interest in energy efficiency and renewable energy, some of which may overlap the issues raised in this post. Small businesses, sometimes teamed with universities, may submit proposals in response to these topics and possibly receive awards for technology/process development.